Sunday, March 1, 2009

The Cruel Question Mark

per Link, rumor has it that Chris Pronger to Boston is a done deal. In summary, here is what it looks like:

Bruins get: Pronger and Moen

Ducks get: An unnamed Bruins roster player, Stuart, Colborne, and a first rounder in '10

Seeing that the Ducks are on the verge of an implosion, the identity of this roster player is VERY important. Having sources tease us like this is just plain cruel. Having said this, let's try to narrow down some possibilities as to who it might be:

First, it is useful to compare this deal to the one the Ducks made a few years ago. To recap:

Oilers get: Lupul, Smid, a first rounder, a second rounder and another conditional first.

Ducks get: Pronger

I find that the comparison to the Oilers trade works because despite the fact that Pronger has a few years burned off his contract and is a few years older (both of which should decrease his trade value), he is fresh off winning a cup and is being dealt in a deadline deal to a team I will call the cup favorites (both of which should increase his value). Having said this, I feel we can eliminate the first rounders right off the bat. We are left with:

Oilers get: Lupul, Smid, a second rounder and a conditional first.

Ducks get: Pronger

Bruins get: Pronger and Moen

Ducks get: An unnamed Bruins roster player, Stuart, Colborne

Using math, we can probably get away with doing this:

Bruins get: Lupul, Smid, Moen, a second rounder and a conditional first

Ducks get: An unnamed Bruins roster player, Stuart, Colborne

Now I am of the thought that Lupul was worth more in 2006 that Colborne is worth now and that Moen is worth more than Stuart. I think these are pretty safe assertions seeing that Lupul was hot off stellar playoff runs at so young an age, proving that he was a solid first round pick (a title he continues to uphold). Sure, Colborne is averaging a PPG in his first year in college and that definitely points to his panning out to be a solid first round pick of his own. Having said this, he is still a prospect. Moen, on the other hand, has proven to be tight in the defensive end and has proven that he is a consistent playoff performer that can skate with the best. I think Stuart has yet to show the league that he is underrated. In other words, this mystery player from the Bruins had better be worth at least a B level defensive prospect, a second rounder, and a conditional first at the very least.

After losing Kunitz, I think it might be safe to say that Mr. Question Mark is a forward.
Possibilities include: Wheeler, Kobasew, Kessel, Krejci, or Lucic. Should the Ducks receive anybody worse than the 5 named here, I would consider the Bruins to have robbed us. Out of the 5, getting Kessel may be a long shot (but hey, I'd love to have him) so it is more likely the other four. Who is worth at least a defensive prospect, a second and a conditional first?, I'd say Wheeler or Lucic. However, no way Lucic goes because he is signed into next year for pennies. Thus, fair value states we'd probably get Blake Wheeler.

However, I'm going to factor in my rose colored glasses and predict that the Ducks will get Chuck Kobasew. I think we'd be getting the short end of the stick if we got him, but I'd rather be either right or pleasantly surprised.

You heard it here first folks:

Bruins get: Pronger and Moen

Ducks get: Kobasew, Stuart, Colborne, and a first rounder in '10


PS. If I get this right, Murray owes me an internship.

1 comment:

Bryce said...

We better be getting one of those "K" forwards! Nice work Denton.